India CPI slows to 3.16% in April

Indian shopkeepers sell summer fruit watermelons at their roadside stalls in a market area in Siliguri, India on May 2, 2025.
Watermelon is a very popular fruit during the summer season.

Diptendu Dutta | Afp | Getty Images

India’s headline inflation eased to 3.16% in April, the sixth consecutive month of decline.

The reading was lower than March’s data of 3.34%, and is lower than the 3.27% expected by economists polled by Reuters.

This was the sixth straight month that the inflation fell.

Food inflation, which is a key inflation metric in the country, dipped to 1.78% in April, from March’s figure of 2.69%.

Bank of America analysts had said in a May 5 note that food prices will remain “in check,” while core inflation will climb due to higher gold prices.

Prices of the yellow metal have spiked as trade tensions roiled global markets, hitting a record intraday high of $3,498.24 on April 22.

The inflation figure will likely clear the way for the Reserve Bank of India to continue to cut rates, after the RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said in his statement after the central bank’s April 9 meeting that it will shift its stance from neutral to accommodative, aiming to stimulate the economy through softer interest rates.

The RBI most recently cut its policy rate to 6% at the meeting, delivering a second straight rate cut.

India’s GDP numbers for its financial quarter ending March are expected to come in on May 30, and BofA forecasts that while GDP growth will recover to 6.7%, compared to the 6.2% seen in the quarter ending December.

However, full-year GDP is expected to undershoot the RBI’s estimate of 6.5%, they added. Earlier in the year, HSBC said that “reciprocal” tariffs will directly shave off 0.5 percentage point from India’s full-year growth for the financial year ending March 2026.

However, U.S. officials most recently have said that a trade deal with India was “close”, with U.S. President Donald Trump saying on April 29 that ‘I think we’ll have a deal with India’ on tariffs and trade.

india-cpi-slows-to-3-16-in-april