Exchange Inflows Collapse As Bitcoin Eyes Price Discovery
Bitcoin is setting the stage for what could be an expansive breakout, but uncertainty remains as bulls struggle to push above the $112,000 level with conviction. Despite reaching a new all-time high by just $40, BTC has not yet confirmed the breakout that would initiate a true move into price discovery. Still, broader macroeconomic conditions—such as record highs in US equities, easing global tensions, and robust job market data—paint a supportive backdrop for risk assets.
What’s particularly noteworthy in this moment is investor behavior. According to fresh data, BTC inflows to Binance have collapsed to levels not seen since the depths of the bear market. The monthly average of BTC sent to Binance sits at roughly 5,300 BTC, but the latest daily figure hovers near 4,600 BTC. These historically low inflows, paired with bullish price action, suggest investors are holding strong rather than preparing to sell.
Unlike outflows, which are often skewed by internal exchange movements, inflows offer a cleaner signal of potential sell pressure. Bitcoin transferred to an exchange typically reflects an intent to sell, or at least the option to. The fact that so few BTC are moving into Binance, the largest global exchange, indicates that investors are not eager to take profits.
Instead, this behavior reflects growing conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term potential. As BTC tests its final resistance, the market seems to lack the typical overhead pressure that would otherwise trigger a correction. If buyers manage to push BTC cleanly above $112K, this rare mix of low inflows and strong sentiment could launch the asset into a powerful new leg upward.
BTC Price Analysis: Bulls Test Final Resistance Below
Bitcoin is trading at $111,153 after briefly breaking to a new all-time high. The daily chart shows BTC consolidating just below the key resistance level at $112,000, which previously marked the top in late May. Price action has been constructive over the past several weeks, forming a series of higher lows and maintaining strong support above $109,300. This area has now flipped into short-term support and will likely act as the first defense if a rejection occurs.
The 50-day moving average (blue) is trending upward and sits just above $106,800, closely followed by the 100-day moving average (green) at $99,865—indicating solid mid-term momentum. The 200-day moving average (red) remains well below at $96,672, confirming the broader bullish trend is still intact.
Volume has not significantly expanded despite the new all-time high, suggesting this move lacks full conviction, at least for now. If BTC can hold above $109,300 and decisively push beyond $112,000, we could see a strong continuation toward price discovery levels. However, failure to break above may lead to another round of consolidation.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
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