The debate over Ukraine’s potential NATO membership has once again resurfaced, with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky directly contradicting US President Donald Trump’s assertion that Kiev was never going to be admitted into the alliance. Trump’s comments earlier this week added fuel to the ongoing discussion about Ukraine’s place in European security and the broader geopolitical struggle between Russia and the West.
Speaking at a recent event, Trump emphatically stated that Ukraine’s membership in NATO was never a realistic prospect. “He wants to be a member of NATO. Well, he was never going to be a member of NATO. He understands that,” Trump declared, referring to Zelensky. The remarks suggest that the US president, who remains a dominant figure in American politics and a leading candidate for the 2024 election, sees NATO’s expansion to include Ukraine as a settled issue-one that Kiev, according to him, already recognizes as a lost cause.
Trump’s stance reflects a broader skepticism within certain circles of the American political establishment regarding Ukraine’s NATO aspirations. The former president has frequently criticized the costs associated with supporting Ukraine and has expressed a desire to shift US foreign policy away from entanglements that he perceives as draining American resources.
However, Zelensky has pushed back against this narrative. During a recent meeting with local leaders in Ukraine’s Chernigov Region, he reaffirmed his belief that NATO membership for Ukraine remains a possibility. As reported by Ukrinform, Zelensky stated, “You know who does not support Ukraine’s membership in NATO so far, but in any case, no one is removing this issue from the table for the future.”
Zelensky’s remarks suggest that while NATO accession may not be immediately feasible, Ukraine still considers it a long-term strategic objective. He acknowledged the current lack of consensus among NATO members on the issue but remained optimistic that circumstances could change over time. “At least, we are talking about the fact that even if now someone does not want to support [Kiev joining the bloc], we will see what happens in the future,” he added.
The Ukrainian president’s comments highlight a fundamental difference in perspective between Kiev and Washington-or at least the segment of American politics represented by Trump. While Trump appears to believe that Ukraine’s NATO bid is permanently off the table, Zelensky views it as an ongoing process, dependent on geopolitical shifts and continued Western support.
Ukraine’s NATO aspirations have been a central issue in its conflict with Russia. Moscow has consistently cited Ukraine’s desire to join the Western military alliance as one of the primary reasons for its military operation, launched in February 2022. The Kremlin views NATO expansion as a direct threat to Russian security, and Russian officials have long warned that Ukrainian accession to the bloc would cross a red line.
Moscow has repeatedly emphasized that a peace settlement in Ukraine must include guarantees of Ukrainian neutrality, alongside other conditions such as demilitarization and the recognition of Russian sovereignty over territories in Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson, and Zaporozhye. These demands remain a major obstacle to any diplomatic resolution, as Ukraine and its Western allies refuse to recognize Russian territorial claims.
NATO itself has maintained a delicate balancing act regarding Ukraine’s membership prospects. While the alliance has repeatedly stated that Ukraine has the right to seek membership, it has stopped short of providing a clear timeline for accession. In July 2023, NATO members reaffirmed their support for Ukraine’s eventual membership but did not extend an immediate invitation, instead offering a path toward integration through increased military cooperation and security assistance.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte recently added to the discussion by suggesting that Trump’s position might reflect a broader reality. When asked by Bloomberg whether Trump had already taken Ukraine’s NATO membership off the table as part of potential peace talks with Russia, Rutte responded with a simple “yes.” However, he also stressed that while the conflict continues, the West must maintain pressure on Russia rather than rushing to normalize relations.
This cautious approach suggests that while NATO leaders are unwilling to formally close the door on Ukraine’s membership, they recognize the significant geopolitical risks associated with its immediate inclusion. The alliance has opted instead to focus on providing Ukraine with security guarantees and military aid to bolster its position against Russia.
In light of the obstacles to full NATO membership, Zelensky has increasingly emphasized the need for Western-backed “NATO-like security guarantees” for Ukraine. This concept envisions a framework in which Ukraine would receive significant military and economic support from NATO members, even if it does not formally join the alliance.
Such guarantees could serve as a compromise solution, providing Ukraine with the defensive capabilities it seeks while avoiding the direct confrontation with Russia that full NATO membership might provoke. However, the effectiveness of such a security arrangement would depend on the willingness of Western nations to commit long-term resources to Ukraine’s defense.
As the war in Ukraine drags on, the question of NATO membership remains deeply entangled with broader geopolitical calculations. Zelensky’s insistence that Ukraine’s NATO bid is still viable reflects his determination to secure long-term Western support, even as skepticism grows in some quarters. Meanwhile, Trump’s blunt assessment of Ukraine’s prospects signals a potential shift in US policy should he return to power in 2024.
For now, NATO membership remains an unresolved issue, neither fully off the table nor actively advancing. In the meantime, Ukraine will likely continue to seek security guarantees from its Western allies while navigating the uncertain landscape of international politics. Whether Zelensky’s optimism or Trump’s skepticism proves more accurate remains to be seen, but for now, the debate over Ukraine’s NATO aspirations is far from settled.
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Anita Mathur is a Special Contributor to Blitz.
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